Follow Your Nose (Part II) by Ben Norton

A: A Spade. Despite being dummy’s primary suit, a Spade lead rates to be best not only from an offensive viewpoint, but also from a passive one. On this auction declarer’s most likely shape is 1.5.3.4, so you won’t be giving anything away with a Spade lead. But it’s possible that dummy’s Spades are poor, or it could even have only four of them, in which case a Spade will set up tricks for the defense.

You could also consider leading the unbid suit, Diamonds, but declarer will have those well-stopped most of the time. Also, if you consider dummy’s possible shapes you’ll see that it’ll have at least three Diamonds, since it can’t contain three Hearts or four Clubs or six Spades. All this points to a Diamond lead having very little offensive potential, since your side will have a maximum of seven cards in the suit, whereas a Diamond will often blow a trick.

Your result so far:

A: A Diamond. This is not the time to lead dummy’s suit, since West has guaranteed six Hearts. Nor would it be a good idea to lead around to one of East’s black suits, unless you have a very good holding like A Q 10 x x. By bidding 3♦ West has implied weak Diamonds, otherwise he would have bid 3NT, not caring if his partner has a stop or not. West must be worried about you attacking Diamonds, so make him jitter in his chair!

Your result so far:

A: A Spade. West will have 4.0.4.5, or maybe 4.1.4.4 shape for his bidding, while East has just denied a fit for his partner’s suits. In this way it seems that a Heart lead, around to East’s suit, is a good idea. But don’t forget that East heard his partner bid the other three suits, suggesting Heart shortage. Thus East is sure to have the Hearts under lock and key to insist on playing No-trumps.

So which of dummy’s suits should you be most inclined to lead? Well, West likely has five Clubs, so leading that suit won’t be too fruitful. It may seem that there’s nothing separating the pointed suits, but there is. By bidding 1NT over 1♠ East suggested a Diamond stop, for without one he would have corrected to 2♣, being too afraid of playing in 1NT off the Diamond suit, or wrong-siding the contract. But at no point has East shown a Spade stop, so it follows that your side has more of a chance of developing tricks in Spades than in Diamonds.

Your result so far:

A: A Spade. Declarer is almost sure to have Clubs sewn up, since he jumped to 3NT, thus he has no interest in finding a fit in Diamonds or Hearts. East rates to have 2.2.5.4 shape or something similar, and strong Clubs, else he would have taken a slower route to 3NT to show some doubt, likely via a Fourth-suit-forcing 3♣ bid. There’ll be at least five Hearts on dummy and only four Spades, so your best shot at establishing tricks lies in the Spade suit.

Your result so far:

A: A Heart. A Spade lead could be right if you hold a good five or four-card suit there, but if you don’t you can’t expect too much from partner, after all he didn’t overcall 1♠ over 1♥, so he’s unlikely to have five Spades, at least not five good ones. In general a Heart lead rates to be safest here, rather than a Club, since even though dummy has shown equal length in those suits, declarer won’t have three Hearts, but he could have three Clubs, preferring the No-trump game to 5♣.

When considering which suit to lead on these kinds of auctions, think about where the opponents’ strength lies, and if they’re likely to have the unbid suit sewn up (if they take a slower route to 3NT instead of bidding it quickly they probably won’t have too many stops there). Also, it pays to think about the likely shapes of the enemy hands, in order to gauge which suit will be most profitable to attack.

Your result so far: